REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the forty-eighth week of 2023, the ASEAN region experienced 26 disaster events that affected Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. In Indonesia, the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported floods, landslides, and wind-related events in Aceh, Banten, Jakarta, West Java, East Java, Lampung, West Sumatra, and North Sumatra. Additionally, volcanic activity (eruption) had been reported for Marapi Volcano in West Sumatra. In Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Johor and Kelantan. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) documented flooding incidents in Region II and XI, and M7.4 earthquake (corrected from M6.9 earthquake) in Surigao del Sur in the Philippines. Meanwhile, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) in Thailand reported strong winds and flooding incidents in several provinces of Southern Region.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), M7.4 earthquake with a depth of 25 km (corrected from M6.9 with a depth of 8 km) occurred in Surigao del Sur on 2 Dec 2137 HRS UTC+7. As of 3 Dec 2023 at 2100 HRS UTC+7, PHIVOLCS reported a total of 1,279 aftershocks (M1.4 to M6.6), of which 270 were plotted and 12 were felt. According to PHIVOLCS, sea level monitoring confirmed the occurrence of tsunami with the preliminary wave heights of 0.64 meters in Mawes Island, Hinatuan, 0.18 meter in Lawigan, Bislig City, 0.05 meter in Port of Dapa, Surigao del Norte, and 0.08 meter in Mati, Davao Oriental. As of 3 Dec at 1500 HRS UTC+7, the NDRRMC reported that the impacts of the M7.4 earthquake in Surigao del Sur had reached 2.6K persons (529 families) affected, 1 dead, and 2 injured. Reports of damages include 6 houses and 2 bridges. Alert status at the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Operations Center (NDRRMOC) is on BLUE ALERT to closely monitor, consolidate, and report all related incidents and to ensure prompt coordination with concerned agencies and offices. Meanwhile in Indonesia, Volcanic activity had been reported for Marapi Volcano in West Sumatra, Indonesia by the Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) on 3 Dec 2023 at 1454 HRS UTC+7. The height of the eruption column was observed to be approximately 3,000 meters above the peak (approximately 5,891 meters above sea level). The ash column was observed to be gray in color with a thick intensity. As of 4 Dec at 1030 HRS UTC+7, the BNPB reported that the impacts of Marapi Volcano activity had reached 11 people dead, 26 missing, and 9 injured. As of reporting, relevant government authorities had carried out necessary actions to address the situation.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed moderate to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Brunei Darussalam; Sumatra, Java, Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Papua in Indonesia; Peninsular, Sabah, and Sarawak Malaysia; north-eastern Luzon and Mindanao in the Philippines; southern Thailand; and central and south-east of Viet Nam. As of reporting, Tropical Cyclone MICHAUNG and INVEST 92P are located outside the ASEAN region and are not expected to have a direct impact on the weather situation in the ASEAN Region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Twenty-one (21) significant earthquakes (M?5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), PHIVOLCS, and Thailand Meteorological Department (TMD). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), Anak Krakatau (alert level III), Ibu (alert level II), Dukono (alert level II), and Marapi (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Mayon (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according PVMBG and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over parts of southern Mainland Southeast Asia and the northern Malay Peninsula, and over much of the central and southeastern Maritime Continent; and warmer conditions are predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and eastern coast of Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for a very heavy rainfall event to occur in Myanmar, southern Thailand, and southern Borneo; a small increase in chance in central and southern Myanmar, and Borneo, and a moderate increase in chance in the Philippines, Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Java, for extreme hot conditions. An El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently present.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Various news agencies.
