REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the forty-ninth week of 2023, the ASEAN region experienced 17 disaster events that affected Indonesia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam. In Indonesia, the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported floods and strong winds in West and Central Kalimantan, West Nusa Tenggara, North Sumatra, Aceh, West Sulawesi, and East Java. In addition, a M4.0 earthquake was also reported in West Java. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported a M6.8 earthquake in Surigao del Sur. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported flooding and landslides in Quang Ngai in Viet Nam.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), a M6.8 earthquake with a depth of 1 km occurred in Surigao del Sur on 4 Dec 0249 HRS UTC+7. As of reporting, NDRRMC reported a total of 2,041 aftershocks (M1.4 to M5.8), of which 540 were plotted and 10 were felt. Notably, this earthquake occurred in the same vicinity as the M7.4 (corrected from M6.9) earthquake that occurred on 2 Dec, as previously recorded in Week 48. The NDRRMC reported a combined total of 6,481 aftershocks ranging from M1.3 to M6.6. Moreover, the NDRRMC reported that the combined impacts of the M7.4 and M6.8 earthquakes in Surigao del Sur had reached 705.8K persons (176.6K families) affected, 3 fatalities, 86 injured, and 3K displaced. Reports of damages include 5.6K houses, of which 375 were totally damaged and 5.2K were partially damaged. Alert status at the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Operations Center (NDRRMOC) remains on BLUE ALERT to closely monitor, consolidate, and report all related incidents and to ensure prompt coordination with concerned agencies and offices. Meanwhile in Indonesia, the BNPB reported a M4.0 earthquake that occurred in West Java on 8 Dec 2023 at 0200 HRS UTC+7. The earthquake which had a depth of 5 km, had impacts in Sukabumi and Bogor where the BNPB recorded 559 affected persons (268 families), 1 injured, 73 displaced, and 266 damaged houses. As of reporting, relevant government authorities had carried out necessary actions to address the situation.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed moderate to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Brunei Darussalam; Indonesia; Malaysia; northeastern coast of Myanmar; southern Philippines; southern Thailand; and central coast of Viet Nam. As of reporting, there is no active tropical cyclone advisories for the ASEAN Region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Twenty-eight (28) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and PHIVOLCS. Mount Semeru (alert level III), Anak Krakatau (alert level III), Merapi (alert level III), Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), Ibu (alert level II), Dukono (alert level II), and Marapi (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Mayon (alert level 2), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to the Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over much of the southern Maritime Continent, parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent, and eastern coast of Mainland Southeast Asia. Wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the western Maritime continent. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of the northern ASEAN region. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a moderate increase in chance of heavy rainfall over eastern Myanmar and northern Viet Nam. However, the dry season is less likely to have very heavy rainfall in these regions. There is a small increase in chance of heavy rainfall over central Borneo, Sulawesi and northern Papua. Extreme hot conditions are very likely over much of the Mainland Southeast Asia, excluding Myanmar. There is also a high chance of extreme hot conditions over Malay Peninsula and most of Philippines, except southern parts of Philippines. For Maritime Continent, there is a high chance of extreme hot conditions over northern and southern Sumatra and northern Java. There is moderate increase in chance over parts of central Sumatra, most of Borneo, Sulawesi, and Papua. An El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently present.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
