REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the thirty-fifth week of 2023, fifteen (15) disaster events reportedly affected the region. Indonesia has been reportedly affected. Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported floods and landslides in Aceh, North Sumatra, and North Maluku; and drought in West Java, Central Java, and Gorontalo. Meanwhile, on 29 August 2023, Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, and Geofisika (BMKG) reported M7.1 Earthquake in the Northern Bali Sea at a depth of 525 km. As of reporting, there are no significant impacts and damages reported by BNPB Indonesia.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to NDRRMC, as of 4 September at 0700 HRS UTC+7, the Combined Effects of the Southwest Monsoon, Tropical Cyclone SAOLA (Goring), and Tropical Cyclone HAIKU (Hanna) in the Philippines has reached MAJOR category based on the AHA Centre’s DMA Guidelines. Four (4) cities/municipalities have declared a state of calamity. According to the latest situation reports, around 140.1K families (514.2K people) have been affected in Region 1, 2, 3, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, 6, and CAR, and NCR and 13.3K remain internally displaced (of which, 915 families or 3,251 persons were served inside 52 evacuation centres). Reports also indicate that there have been 2 lives lost, 1 injured, and 1 missing. The disaster has also resulted in 1.35K damaged houses, 226 of which were totally damaged. Damages have reportedly reached 12.6M USD (damages to agriculture and infrastructure) and an estimated 595.3K USD worth of assistance have been provided to the affected community.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed moderate to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across northern Sumatra, northern Kalimantan, and Papua in Indonesia; Peninsular and Sabah Malaysia; western and central parts of Myanmar; across the Philippine due to the development of TC SAOLA, TC HAIKU, and Southwest monsoon; and southern and central of Viet Nam. As of reporting, According to PAGASA, TC HAIKU has exited the Philippines Area of Responsibility. TC SAOLA has weakened into a Low-Pressure Area and gradually dissipating over the western coast of Leizhou Peninsula (NCHMF). Another Tropical Cyclone, called INVEST 99W was estimated, based on all available data, at 845 km northeast of Northern Luzon, the Philippines. INVEST 99W is forecast to track toward the north-northeast and has a low chance of developing into a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Six (6) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s BMKG and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), Ibu (alert level II), and Semeru (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Indonesia’s Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are expected over parts of Mainland Southeast Asia and the northern half of the Philippines; drier conditions are predicted over much of the southern ASEAN region, with the highest likelihood over the southwestern part of the region; warmer conditions are expected over most of the southern ASEAN region and over much of northern and central Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance in the parts of Cambodia, northeast Thailand, and Papua of Indonesia, and moderate increase in chance in southern Myanmar for a very heavy rainfall event; a moderate increase in chance for extreme hot conditions to occur in Northern Myanmar, Northern Lao PDR, parts of the Malay Peninsula, central and northern Philippines. El Niño conditions are predicted to strengthen over the next few months. At the seasonal timescale during September to November, El Niño events bring drier conditions to much of the ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Viet Nam: NCHMF;
Various news agencies.
