FLASH UPDATE #1 – Tropical Cyclone INVEST 99W
Country under monitoring: Viet Nam
OVERVIEW: According to the National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting (NCHMF), the low pressure area (INVEST 99W) has developed into tropical depression level. As of 1300 HRS UTC+7, the centre of the eye of this Tropical Depression was estimated based on all available data at about 15.7 °N, 110.6°E, about 160 km southwest of Hoang Sa archipelago.
MOVEMENT: INVEST 99W moving northwestward at a speed of 5 km/h.
INTENSITY: The strongest wind near the centre of the tropical depression is strong at level 6-7 (39-61km/h), with gustiness up to level 9.
FORECAST:
- According to NCHMF, INVEST 99W is forecasted to move northwest direction at 10 km/h and is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm on 18 October over the waters of Quang Tri to Da Nang. INVEST 99W is then forecasted to continue to move in the north-northwest direction until it reaches the southern parts of the Gulf of Tonkin on 19 October.
- Global forecast models are in good agreement that INVEST 99W will move north-northwestward and continue to develop over the next 1 to 2 days (JTWC).
HAZARDS:
- From 17-19 October, NCHMF expects strong winds in the southwestern waters of the Northern East Sea region. Further, NCHMF forecasts heavy to very heavy rain over the area from Quang Tri to Quang Nam; moderate to heavy rain (some places very heavy rain) over Ha Tinh, Quang Binh, Quang Ngai.
- NCHMF also forecasted that the Northeast and North Central regions of Viet Nam are likely to continue to experience heavy rain. Heavy rain in the Mid-Central region gradually decreased.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- The National Steering Committee for Disaster Prevention and Control of Viet Nam has dispatch a telegram No. 15/CD-QG dated 17 October 2023 to requesting the Steering Committee for Disaster Prevention and Control of Coastal Provinces and Cities from Quang Ningh to Khan Hoa, relevant ministries/agencies, as well as private sector (industry) to proactively respond to the potential impacts of Tropical Depression INVEST 99W and heavy rainfall (VDDMA).
- NCHMF continues to monitor the weather situation and provide regular weather updates to all stakeholders.
CURRENT FLOODING SITUATION IN CENTRAL VIET NAM:
- As of 15 October, VDDMA has reported flooding in the Central Region, including Da Nang, Ha Tinh, Quang Nam, Quang Tri, and Thua Thien Hue which has resulted to 2 deaths and displacement of 6.8K people. About 1.6K houses have been affected and 28.1 ha of vegetables were flooded.
- Government authorities have taken actions to address the situation including mobilising over 433 uniformed personnel and deployment of logistics to the affected communities.
- As of 17 October, VDDMA has reported that schools have been prepared for return of students to normal classes. Non-boarding school classes have been suspended since 13 October due to deeply flooded roads in the city.
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS);
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF;
Verified news media agencies.
