REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the twentieth-week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced 30 disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, wind-related disasters, and volcano. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Viet Nam were reportedly affected by these disasters. According to the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia, floods, landslides, and wind-related disaster events were reported in Aceh, Jambi, West Java, East Kalimantan, Riau, South Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, North Sulawesi, South Sumatra, and North Sumatra as well as volcanic activity by Ili Lewotolok Volcano in East Nusa Tenggara and Ibu Volcano in North Maluku. In Malaysia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Kedah, Perak, and Sabah. Meanwhile, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) Thailand reported flooding, storms, and wind-related disaster incidents in Lampang, Phrae, Phichit, Nakhon Sawan, Nong Bua Lamphu, Khon Kaen, Lopburi, Pathum Thani, Mae Hong Son, Nong Khai, Surin, Sukhothai, and Chachoengsao. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and the Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) documented flooding, landslides, storms, and winds in Cao Bang, Bac Kan, Thai Nguyen, Yen Bai, Lao Cai, Dien Bien, Hoa Binh, Dong Nai, Binh Duong, Binh Phuoc, An Giang, and Tay Ninh.
HIGHLIGHT:
Over the past week, Sumatra Island in Indonesia has experienced heavy rainfall. According to reports from BNPB, several provinces, including Aceh, North Sumatra, Riau, Jambi, and South Sumatra, have been affected by flooding, landslides, and wind-related disasters. As of 20 May at 0700 HRS UTC+7, approximately 1.9K families (5.8K persons) have been impacted. The damages include 1.6K houses, 4 educational facilities, 4 public facilities, and 5 places of worship. Local disaster management authorities are actively mobilising resources to address the situation.
Meanwhile, in West Sumatra, BNPB reports indicate an increasing number of casualties due to flooding and landslides, including incidents include cold lava flood since Week 19 of 2024. According to the reports as of 20 May at 0800 HRS UTC+7, these disasters have claimed 61 lives, and approximately 3,500 people are still displaced. The total estimated cost of damages, stands at 6.8 million USD. BPBD and other relevant agencies continue to conduct Search and Rescue Operations as well as impact and damage assessments. Additionally, they also provide essential logistics support to the affected communities.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia (Sumatra, Western Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua), Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar (East and Southeast), the Philippines (Luzon), Thailand, and Viet Nam. As of reporting, Tropical Cyclone 25S in the Indian Ocean (JTWC) is not expected to directly impact the weather situation in the ASEAN Region. Additionally, INVEST 93 is currently located in the western Pacific Ocean, although JTWC has not yet issued warnings or advisories for INVEST 93W.
GEOPHYSICAL:
Five (5) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Ili Lewotolok (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level IV) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over much of the southern Maritime Continent; wetter conditions are predicted over the eastern half of the Equatorial Region; warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and parts of Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for very heavy rainfall conditions to occurs over parts of Mainland Southeast Asia and eastern Maritime Continent; and a moderate increase in chance over much of the Maritime Continent, and a small increase in chance over parts of southern Mainland Southeast Asia. An El Niño is weakening and predicted to transition to ENSO neutral conditions during May 2024. At the seasonal timescale during March to May, El Niño events typically bring warmer conditions to much of the ASEAN region and drier conditions to much of the northern ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
