REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the forty-second week of 2023, the ASEAN region experienced 12 disaster events that affected Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. In addition to these, Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) Thailand also reported that the flooding that began in week 39 still persisted in Week 42. Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) also reported flooding in Kedah, Negeri Sembilan, and Selangor. In addition, NADMA also reported that impacts of the landslides in Cameron Highlands from Week 41 also remains. In Indonesia, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported tornadoes, flooding, and landslides in North Sumatra, South Kalimantan, West Java, South Sulawesi, South Sumatra, and West Sumatra, while droughts were reported in West Java, East Java, and Central Java. Tropical Cyclone SANBA caused storms and tornadoes in Viet Nam as reported by Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA).
HIGHLIGHT:
From 16-22 October, the BNPB of Indonesia reported that the combined impacts of heavy rainfall, strong winds, and the overflowing of Kreung Meureubbo River affected 10.6k persons, while drought already affected a total of 186k persons. Meanwhile, the combined effects of the Southwest Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone SANBA brought moderate to heavy, and very heavy rainfall in some places across Mainland Southeast Asia and contributed to the flooding situation in these parts of the region. In Malaysia, the combined impacts of the landslides from Week 41, and flooding in 3 states this week displaced a total of 58 families (260 persons) (NADMA). In Thailand, the flooding situation from Week 39 persisted in 5 provinces and had already affected a total of 312K persons (DDPM). In Viet Nam, during the formation of Tropical Cyclone SANBA, 2 ships carrying a total of 93 persons were sunk and resulted to 2 casualties and 13 missing fishermen (VDDMA). Relevant government agencies has taken action to address the situation including mobilising personnel and logistics for the affected communities, and deployment of rescue operations for the missing people.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, the data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed moderate to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Brunei Darussalam; southern Cambodia; northern Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua in Indonesia; southern and central Lao PDR; Peninsular and Sarawak Malaysia; Luzon and Mindanao islands in the Philippines; and central Viet Nam and Viet Nam East Sea associated with the development of Tropical Cyclone SANBA. As of 1600 HRS UTC+7, Tropical Cyclone 06B (Six), is located in the N Indian Ocean with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h, and wind gusts up to 83 km/h. According to the latest available forecast, 06B is s likely to move North-Northeastwards and continue to intensify over the next 24 hours and expected to cross Bangladesh coast on 25 Oct (DMH, DMRS, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Six (6) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (Alert Level III), Ibu (Alert Level II), and Ili Lewotolok (Alert Level II) in Indonesia; and Mayon (Alert Level 3), Taal (Alert Level 1), and Kanlaon (Alert Level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Indonesia’s Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over most of the southwestern Maritime Continent and predicted to extend eastwards to cover much of the Maritime Continent. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of Maritime Continent. For regional assessment of extreme, there is a small increase in chance for extreme hot conditions over much of the Maritime Continent, including the Malay Peninsula, southern Sumatra, western and eastern Borneo, Java, Sulawesi, Nusa Tenggara, Maluku Islands, northern Papua and the Philippines. El Niño conditions are predicted to strengthen over the next few months. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently present. At the seasonal timescale during September to November, both positive IOD and El Niño events typically bring drier conditions to much of the ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Myanmar: DMH;
Philippines: PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
