REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the twenty-fifth week of 2022, a total of 19 disasters (13 floods, 2 landslides, 1 storms, and 3 wind-related) affected the region. Indonesia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam have reportedly been affected. Strong winds, flooding, and landslide due to prolonged duration of moderate to very heavy rainfall, overflowing of the rivers, and tidal wave were reported by Badan Nasional Penganggulangan Bencana (BNPB) in Aceh, North Sumatra, South Sumatra, West Java, Central Java, West Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, and Southeast Sulawesi. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) of the Philippines reported that flooding and landslide occurred in Kalamansig in Sultan Kudarat. Lastly, The Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA) reported that storms and wind have affected Cho Gao and My Tho City in Tien Giang.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to BNPB, heavy rainfall, overflowing of the rivers, and strong wind in Bogor Regency and tidal wave in Cirebon City resulted in flooding, rain-induced landslide, and wind-related events in West Java, Indonesia. The affected sub-district include Kec. Pamijahan and Kec. Leuwiliang (Bogor Regency), and Kec. Lemahwungkuk and Kec. Kejaksaan (Cirebon City). These events have resulted in 4 deaths, 9 missing, 3.6K families (17.1K persons) affected, and almost 250 persons displaced. Reports of damages include 3K houses, 5 bridges, 3 roads, 1 school, and 1 public facility. Local disaster management agencies coordinate with relevant agencies and organisations to carry out necessary actions, and continue to monitor and assess the situation.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed high 7-day average rainfall spreading across northern Sumatra, Riau Islands, Kalimantan, southeast Sulawesi, Maluku and Papua in Indonesia; eastern parts of Peninsular Malaysia; western parts of Luzon and Mindanao of the Philippines; southern parts of Thailand; and north central coast and southeast of Viet Nam. As of reporting, a Low-Pressure Area (INVEST 97W) was estimated based on all available data in the vicinity of Tayabas Bay, the Philippines. INVEST 97W remains less likely to develop into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours and is expected to move west northwestward (PAGASA, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Three (3) significant earthquakes (M?5.0) were recorded in the region by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Anak Krakatau (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Taal Volcano (alert level 2), Bulusan Volcano (alert level 1), and Mount Kanlaon (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to the Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are expected over much of the southern half of the Maritime Continent, northern Mainland Southeast Asia and northern Philippines; Warmer conditions are expected over the southeastern Maritime Continent and southern Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for very heavy rainfall event to occur in northern Philippines, parts of northern Mainland Southeast Asia, and parts of southern Maritime Continent (in particular Nusa Tenggara); and a small increase in chance in parts of Thailand and southern Myanmar, coastal parts of Cambodia and southern Viet Nam, and southern half of the Philippines, and moderate increase in chance in southeastern Maritime Continent for extreme hot conditions. La Niña conditions are still present in the Pacific. La Niña conditions are still present in the Pacific. At the seasonal timescale, La Niña events tend to bring wetter conditions to much of the ASEAN region. Negative Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to develop in July. Negative IOD tend to bring wetter conditions to much of the ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Viet Nam: VNDMA;
Various news agencies.
