REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the thirty-fourth week of 2023, twenty (20) disaster events reportedly affected the region. Indonesia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam have been reportedly affected. Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported floods, landslides, and winds in North Sumatra, West Sumatra, and North Sulawesi; and drought in Banten, West Java, East Java, and Bali. The Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported that the Combined Effects of the Southwest Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone SAOLA have affected several regions in the Philippines. Lastly, Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported flooding in Lam Dong and Lao Cai.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to NDRRMC, the effects of the Tropical Cyclone SAOLA has affected Region 1, 2, 3, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, 6, and CAR. As of 28 August, at 0700 HRS UTC+7, around 2.3K families (7.9K persons) affected and 2.3 persons remain internally displaced. The disaster has also resulted in 7 houses, 20 road sections, and 7 bridge sections damaged as well as interrupted the power sources for 26 cities and municipalities. Damages have reportedly reached 705.2K USD (damages to infrastructure) and an estimated of 41.9M USD worth of standby funds and prepositioned relief stockpile are available from DSWD and OCD. As of reporting, relevant government authorities have carried out necessary actions to address the situation.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed moderate to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across north Sumatra, west, cenral and northern Kalimantan, and Papua in Indonesia; northern parts of Myanmar; and across the Philippine Sea and majority of the Philippines due to the development of TC SAOLA and Southwest monsoon. As of reporting, TC SAOLA, currently at Typhoon category, moving north-northeastward over the Philippine Sea. According to PAGASA, SAOLA is forecast to turn generally northeast-westward towards China. SAOLA will make a close approach to Batanes on 30 August and may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on 31 August. Another Tropical Cyclone, called INVEST 93W or HAIKUI was estimated based on all available data at 2,230 km east of Northern Luzon, the Philippines. HAIKUI is forecast to move generally west northwestwards and may enter PAR on 30 August (PAGASA, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Four (4) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), and Dempo (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Mayon (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Indonesia’s Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are expected over parts of Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines; drier conditions are expected over much of the southern half of the Maritime Continent; warmer conditions are expected over much of the Maritime Continent and northern Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for a very heavy rainfall event to occur in much of the area between 10°N and 20°N; a small increase in chance for extreme hot conditions to occur in the parts of central Myanmar and much of the equatorial region. El Niño conditions are predicted to strengthen over the next few months. At the seasonal timescale during June to August, El Niño events bring drier conditions to much of the southern ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
