REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the fifty-second week of 2023, the ASEAN region experienced 28 disaster events that affected Indonesia and the Philippines. In addition, the widespread flooding in Peninsular and Sabah in Malaysia and Southern Region in Thailand from Week 51 persisted until this week as reported by Malaysia’s Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) and Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM). In Indonesia, the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported floods and wind-related disaster events in Aceh, Riau, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, South Sumatra, West Java, East Java, and Bangka Belitung Islands. In addition, a M4.1 earthquake was also reported in West Java. Meanwhile, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) documented flooding and landslide in Surigao Del Sur in the Philippines.
HIGHLIGHT:
Widespread flooding and other rainfall associated disasters that began in the last days of Week 51 persisted in the ASEAN region until this week. In Malaysia, the heavy and continuous rainfall associated with the Northeast Monsoon caused 3 casualties and displaced up to 28K persons in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah (NADMA). In Thailand, according to the DDPM, the flooding affected about 546K persons (109K households) and 282 schools in 5 provinces in the Southern Region. This week in Indonesia, heavy rainfall also brought flooding in the western provinces that affected 118K persons and damaged 28K houses (BNPB). Meanwhile, in the Philippines, the easterlies also brought rainfall that caused flooding in Eastern Mindanao that affected 5.8K persons and damaged 130 houses (NDRRMC). Overall, flooding accounted for 98.7% of all disaster-affected persons in the ASEAN region in Week 52.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed moderate to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua in Indonesia; Peninsular, Sabah, and Sarawak Malaysia; Eastern Mindanao and Visayas in the Philippines; and southern Thailand. These rainfall events are associated with the Northeast Monsoon and the Easterlies. As of reporting, there are no active tropical cyclone advisories for the ASEAN region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Seven (7) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), Malaysia’s Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia (JMM), Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), and Thailand’s Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Lewotobi Laki-Laki (alert level III), Marapi (alert level II), Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), and Dukono (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Mayon (alert level 2), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to the Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the western Maritime continent extending towards Borneo; drier conditions are predicted over much of the southern Maritime Continent and northeastern Maritime Continent extending towards the eastern coast of Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for very heavy rainfall over western parts of Malay Peninsula, central Borneo, Sumatra, Java, Sulawesi, Maluku Islands, and Papua. There is high chance of hot conditions over much of the Maritime Continent, except southern parts of Papua and a moderate increase in chance of very hot conditions over parts of southern and western Mainland Southeast Asia including parts of southern and northern Thailand, southern Viet Nam, western Myanmar, and northern Laos. An El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently present. At the seasonal timescale during December to February, both positive IOD and El Niño events typically bring drier conditions to much of the ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA, JMM;
Myanmar: DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Various news agencies.
