REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the first week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced a total of 29 disasters including floods, landslides, wind-related disasters, and volcanic activity. Indonesia and Malaysia were reportedly affected by these events. According to the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia, floods, landslides, and wind-related disasters occurred in Banten, Jakarta, Jambi, West Java, Central Java, East Java, West Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, Riau, West Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, and North Sumatra. Additionally, Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki Volcano also reported a volcanic eruption in East Nusa Tenggara. Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) of Malaysia reported flooding events in Johor and Pahang.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Indonesia, according to the BNPB, flooding has been reported in Riau Province since 1 January. Over 6K families (24.4K persons) have been affected, with more than 600 people reportedly displaced in Siak, Pelalawan, Pekanbaru, Dumai, and Indragiri Hulu. The damage reports include almost 6K houses, 6 bridges, 1 road, 20 schools, 4 health facilities, 18 government/public facilities, and 17 worship places. In Jambi, BNPB reported flooding and landslides in Tebo Regency. According to the report, more than 8K families and houses have been affected, along with 820 hectares of agricultural areas and 43K livestock. Meanwhile, in Malaysia, flooding has reportedly occurred in Johor and Pahang (NADMA). According to NADMA as of 8 Jan at 1500 HRS UTC+7, around 2.1K families (7.5K persons) have been displaced in 54 evacuation centres over Johor Bahru, Kluang, Kota Tinggi, Kulai, Pontian, and Segamant in Johor, and around 383 families (1.4K persons) have been displaced in 26 evacuation centres over Meran, Pekan, and Rompin in Pahang. Relevant agencies and authorities have carried out necessary actions to address the situation, including coordinating with relevant agencies, data collection, evacuation operations, and logistics needed by the affected community.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed medium to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across the Southeast Asia Maritime Continent, which includes Brunei; Indonesia; Malaysia; Singapore; and eastern parts of Mindanao and Visayas as well as the tip of Zamboanga Peninsula in the Philippines. As of reporting, there are no active tropical cyclone advisories for the region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Seven (7) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III) and Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 2), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over much of the southern ASEAN region; drier conditions are predicted over parts of eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, as well as the Philippines and the surrounding region; and warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of the northern ASEAN region, as well as over the southern Maritime Continent. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a moderate increase in chance in western Maritime Continent and Papua, and a small increase in chance in much of the rest of the equatorial region for very heavy rainfall event; and a moderate increase in chance for extreme hot conditions to occurs in the parts of northeastern and central Mainland Southeast Asia, as well as coastal parts of southern Mainland Southeast Asia, northern Borneo, southern Maritime Continent, and most of the Philippines. An El Niño is currently present, while the positive IOD started to weaken in December 2023 and is predicted to end in January – February 2024. At the seasonal timescale during December to February, El Niño event typically bring drier conditions to much of the ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: PHIVOLCS;
Various news agencies.
