REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the second week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced a total of 28 disasters including floods, landslides, and wind-related disasters. According to the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia, floods, landslides, and wind-related disasters occurred in West Kalimantan, Central Java, West Java, East Java, North Sumatra, South Sumatra, Riau, South Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, Jambi, Bengkulu, North Maluku, and Jakarta.
HIGHLIGHT:
In the second week of 2024, the impacts of wet conditions over the southern ASEAN region and the southern caused significant disasters in Indonesia. According to the BNPB, a total of 128K persons, 35K houses, and 45 schools had been affected by flooding in Indonesia. The floods also caused 862 were internal displacements. The most affected province was South Sumatra with 76K flood-affected persons, which accounts for 60% of the total flooded persons in Week 2. This was followed by West Java which recorded 35K flooded persons. Meanwhile, in Malaysia, the flooding situation from Week 1 in Johor and Pahang persisted until Week 2 with the addition of Sabah (NADMA). According to NADMA as of 15 Jan at 1500 HRS UTC+7, 37 families (164 persons) had been displaced in 4 evacuation centres in Batu Pahat, Kota Tinggi, and Segamat in Johor; 45 families (130 persons) had been displaced in 2 evacuation centres in Rompin in Pahang; and 83 families (274 persons) had been displaced in 4 evacuation centres in Beluran and Sandakan in Sabah. Relevant agencies and authorities have carried out necessary actions to address the situation, including coordinating with relevant agencies, data collection, evacuation operations, and logistics needed by the affected community.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed medium to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across the Southeast Asia Maritime Continent, which includes Brunei; Indonesia; Malaysia; Singapore; and eastern parts of Southern Luzon, Mindanao and the tip of Zamboanga Peninsula in the Philippines. The observed rainfall were generally associated with the Northeast Monsoon and easterlies (JMM, PAGASA), as well as the development Tropical Cyclone Six (06S) located southwest of Sumatra and INVEST 99S located southeast of East Nusa Tenggara (BMKG, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Four (4) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level IV), Semeru (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 2), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over much of the southern ASEAN region. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of the northern ASEAN region, as well as over the southern Maritime Continent. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance of very heavy rainfall over southern Sumatra, western half of Borneo, Sulawesi, Maluku Islands, and western Papua. Small increase in chance for rainfall above the 90th percentile is predicted over parts of northern Mainland Southeast Asia, including central Myanmar, northern Thailand, northern Lao PDR, and northern Viet Nam. There is a moderate increase in chance of extreme hot conditions over central Thailand, southern Myanmar, southern Cambodia, most of Viet Nam, and Lao PDR. There is moderate increase in chance of extreme hot conditions for parts of the Maritime Continent, including Sumatra, Java, Sulawesi, central Papua, central Philippines, and northern Borneo. An El Niño is currently present, while the positive IOD started to weaken in December 2023 and is predicted to end in January – February 2024. At the seasonal timescale during December to February, El Niño event typically bring drier conditions to much of the ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: PHIVOLCS;
Various news agencies.