REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the thirty-ninth week of 2023, 26 disaster events were recorded in the ASEAN region, affecting Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. The National Committee for Disaster Management (NCDM) Cambodia reported floods in Pursat Province. In Indonesia, the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported incidents of floods, landslides, and tornadoes in South Sulawesi and Aceh. Additionally, drought conditions were observed in Bali, Banten, Gorontalo, West Java, Lampung, and Southeast Sulawesi in Indonesia. In Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Perlis and Kedah in addition to the flooding situation that has occurred since week 38. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) and Department of Social Welfare (DSWD) documented incidents of flooding and landslides in Region VI and X. Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported flooding incidents in several provinces of Thailand. Lastly, Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported flooding, landslides, storms, and winds in Central and Northern as well as Southern Regions as the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Thirteen.
HIGHLIGHT:
Tropical Cyclone Thirteen made landfall over Quang Binh – Thua Thien Hue Provinces, Vietnam on September 25th, according to the NCHMF. According to VDDMA, as of 29 Sep, eight people were reported dead or missing, and around 504 houses were damaged due to heavy to very heavy rainfall caused by the cyclone over Northern and Central Provinces in Vietnam. Meanwhile, in Cambodia, flooding and landslides have been reported in Pursat Province. According to NCDM, as of 29 Sep, initial impact reports are as follows: 3.4K families affected, and 598 persons displaced. Reports of damages include 2.8K houses, 8 roads,1 drainage dam, 544 hectares of rice, and 1.1K hectares of other crops. Relevant government authorities have carried out necessary actions to address the situation.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed moderate to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Cambodia; northern Sumatra, northern and western Kalimantan, and Papua in Indonesia; Lao PDR; Peninsular, Sabah, and Sarawak Malaysia; western and lower parts of Myanmar; the Philippines; Thailand; and central Viet Nam. As of 1600 HRS UTC+7, Tropical Cyclone KOINU was located approximately 485 km East of Basco, Batanes, the Philippines. KOINU is forecasted to generally track generally northwestward until 4 Oct before turning west-northwestward or westward. KOINU and the southwest monsoon is forecasted to bring heavy rainfall and severe wind in the Philippines (PAGASA, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Five (5) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Ibu (alert level II), Ili Lewotolok (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Mayon (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Indonesia’s Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted over much of the Maritime Continent; and warmer than usual temperature is predicted over Mainland Southeast Asia and over most of Maritime Continent. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for a very heavy rainfall event to occur in northern Philippines, central Thailand, southern Myanmar, parts of Papua, and northern Sumatra; a moderate increase in chance in central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, central and southern Philippines, and much of the equatorial region, and very likely in much of the southern Maritime Continent and parts of the Malay Peninsula for extreme hot conditions. El Niño conditions are predicted to strengthen over the next few months. A Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently present. At the seasonal timescale during September to November, both positive IOD and El Niño events bring drier conditions to much of the ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Cambodia: NCDM;
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS, DSWD;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
