REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the twenty-seventh week of 2023, a total of 30 disasters (floods, landslides, storms, and drought) affected the region. Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand have reportedly been affected. Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported floods, landslides, and storms in Bali, West Java, East Java, South Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, Maluku, Riau, West Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi and South Sumatra; and Drought in Central Java. The Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) and Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) reported floods caused by Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and easterlies in Region IX, XII, and BARMM. Lastly, Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported floods in the Northern, Eastern, and Southern Regions.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to BNPB, on 7 July, flooding (cold lava flow) and landslide caused by heavy rainfall and unstable soil conditions in Lumajang, particularly in Kec. Pronojiwo, Kec. Candipuro, and Kec. Tempursari. As of 9 July, at 2030 HRS UTC+7, BNPB reported that the flooding and landslide have resulted in 1K persons displaced and 3 persons dead. Reports of damages include 5 bridges, 12 houses (10 heavily damaged, and 2 slightly damaged), 1 educational facility, 1 worship place, 6 livestock, and 82.6 ha of agriculture areas. The Government of Lumajang has coordinated with provincial and national government agencies. BPBD Lumajang has also coordinated with relevant agencies/departments to provide logistics and needs to the affected persons. The Regent of Lumajang has declared an Emergency Response Status for a duration of 14 days (7-20 July 2023).
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed medium to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua in Indonesia; Peninsular, Sabah, and Sarawak Malaysia; Southern Myanmar; Luzon, Mindanao, and Palawan in the Philippines; and northern and southern parts of Viet Nam. As of reporting, there are no active tropical cyclone advisories for the region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Four (4) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Semeru (alert level III) and Karangetang (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Indonesia’s Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over parts of southeastern Maritime Continent and over much of the Philippines; warmer than usual temperature is expected over much of the northern ASEAN region. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a moderate increase in chance for a very heavy rainfall event to occur in Southern Philippines, and the central and eastern Maritime Continent; and very likely in the parts of southeastern Maritime Continent, and moderate increase in chance in much of Mainland Southeast Asia, the Philippines, and central and southern Maritime Continent for extreme hot conditions. El Niño conditions are likely to be established during July – August 2023. During July and August, El Niño events tend to bring drier conditions to much of the southern ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS, DSWD;
Thailand: DDPM;
Various news agencies.
