REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the forty-fifth week of 2023, the ASEAN region experienced 16 disaster events that affected Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. In addition to these, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) Thailand reported that the flooding that began in week 39 persisted in two provinces until Week 45. Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported that impacts of the landslides and flooding Pahang and Perak from Week 41 also continued. In Indonesia, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported tornadoes, flooding, and landslides in North Sumatra, West Kalimantan, West Java, and Aceh. In Malaysia, NADMA reported floods in Selangor. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) and the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) reported the impacts of severe local storms, flooding, and landslide in Regions X, XI, and XII in Mindanao.
HIGHLIGHT:
From 6 to 12 November, several localized thunderstorms and heavy rainfall resulted to floods and landslides in the region. In Indonesia, floods in the western regions affected 1.9K persons and damaged 538 houses (BNPB). In Malaysia, the impacts of heavy rain continues to affect the states of Perak and Selangor as the NADMA reported persistent impacts of floods in these states. In the Philippines, the effects of the Easterlies caused floods and landslides in Mindanao that affected about 35K persons, of which 16.6K were displaced (NDRRMC, DSWD).
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, the data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed moderate to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Brunei Darussalam; most of Cambodia; Sumatra, Kalimantan, North Sulawesi and Papua in Indonesia; most of Malaysia; Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao in the Philippines; southern and central regions of Thailand; central and southern coasts of Viet Nam. As of reporting, PAGASA is currently monitoring Tropical Depression 17W located at about 1,465 km east of northeastern Mindanao and moving northwestward at 15 km/h.
GEOPHYSICAL:
Twenty (20) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Semeru (Alert Level III), Ibu (Alert Level II), Dukono (Alert Level II), and Ili Lewotolok (Alert Level II) in Indonesia; and Mayon (Alert Level 3), Taal (Alert Level 1), Bulusan (Alert Level 1), and Kanlaon (Alert Level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Indonesia’s Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are predicted, except over parts of the equatorial region where wetter conditions are expected. Wetter conditions are predicted over much of Northern ASEAN region. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent. For regional assessment of extremes, there is moderate increase in chance for heavy rainfall over central Viet Nam and a small increase in chance over parts of the Philippines associated with potential tropical cyclone activity. There is also small chance of very heavy rainfall over southern parts of Thailand. There is increased chance in extreme hot conditions over much of the Maritime Continent, with moderate increase in chance over much of Borneo, the Malay Peninsula, Sumatra, Java, Nusa Tenggara, northern Sulawesi, and central Philippines, and a small increase in chance over the southern Maritime Continent. Over Mainland Southeast Asia, there is a small increase in chance of extreme hot conditions over northern and western parts of Myanmar.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: NDRRMC, DSWD, PHIVOLCS, PAGASA;
Thailand: DDPM;
Various news agencies.
