FLASH UPDATE #1 – Tropical Cyclone Three
Country under monitoring: Myanmar
OVERVIEW: A tropical cyclone forecast has been issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) on 9 June 2023, 1600 HRS UTC+7. Tropical Cyclone Three is located in the N Indian Ocean with maximum sustained winds of 74 km/h, and wind gusts up to 93 km/h.
MOVEMENT: Tropical Cyclone Three is headed East at about 4 km/h, and is expected to remain at this strength over the next 24 hours.
HAZARDS:
- At most winds strong enough to cause tree branches to break over Rakhine
- At most 152 mm estimated tropical cyclone-associated rainfall over Rakhine
FORECAST: Based on the current forecast, Tropical Cyclone Three is within 167 km from Myanmar, and the centre is expected to make landfall within the next 23 hour(s), along the shores of/near Rakhine, with sustained winds of about 74 km/h.
EXPOSURE: According to the ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), an estimated 2.92 Million people, 665K households, and 13.5 Billion USD of infrastructure (total replacement value) are potentially exposed to moderate to severe damaging winds. All shorelines in the path of the storm are exposed to potential storm surge, and inland areas within the proximity of the storm are exposed to potential flooding.
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT TO LIFELINES: Following the damages and impacts in Myanmar which is caused by Tropical Cyclone MOCHA starting 14 May 2023 (The AHA Centre SITUATION UPDATE on TC MOCHA), severe impacts from Tropical Cyclone Three are expected despite the current forecast for the potential hazard with at most cause tree branches to break (estimated wind impact) and 152 mm estimated tropical cyclone-associated rainfall.
BREAKDOWN OF KEY NEEDS: (Of exposed vulnerable population, source: DisasterAWARE)
- 1.53 billion calories per day
- 2.19 million litres of water per day
- 73.2K 100-liter waste bins
- 2.52M square metres of shelter
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS);
Verified news media agencies.
