REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the twenty-third week of 2023, a total of 10 disaster events (caused by flooding, storms, wind hazards, landslides, and volcanic activity) were reported for the region particularly in Indonesia, and the Philippines. Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported the occurrence of droughts; floods caused by heavy rainfall; rain-induced landslides due to unstable soil conditions, and tornadoes accompanied by high intensity rainfall. The Philippines’ Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) reported localised thunderstorms and flooding in Davao Region as well as volcanic activity by the Mayon Volcano in Region V and Taal Volcano in CALABARZON.
HIGHLIGHT:
The Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) raised the Mayon Volcano Alert Level to 3 (Increased Tendency Towards Hazardous Eruption) on 8 June. As of 11 June, Mayon Volcano remains in a relatively high level of unrest as magma is at the crater and hazardous eruptions are possible within weeks or days. According to DSWD, 8.7K families (35K persons) have been affected and 14.2K persons internally displaced. The DSWD together with the Local Government Units have provided 456.8K USD worth of assistance to those affected. The AHA Centre stands ready to support the Philippines if the need arises.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed high 7-day average rainfall spreading across the Philippine Sea and coasts of Myanmar related to the development of Tropical Cyclone (TC) GUCHOL and THREE respectively. As of reporting, TC THREE has dissipated and TC GUCHOL is moving away from the region but might continue to enhance the effects of the Southwest Monsoon to portions of the Philippines. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), currently, there is an active tropical cyclone advisory—INVEST 99W.
GEOPHYSICAL:
Four (4) significant earthquakes (M?5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Semeru and Krakatau (alert level III) and Ibu and Dukono (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Mayon (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over parts of northeast Mainland Southeast Asia; drier conditions are predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and parts of southern Mainland Southeast Asia. Warmer than usual temperatures are also expected over much of the Maritime Continent. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for a very heavy rainfall event to occur in Northern Lao PDR, Maluku Islands, and Papua; moderate increase in chance for extreme hot conditions in Peninsular Malaysia and northern Sumatra. ENSO-neutral conditions are present. However, under ENSO-neutral conditions there can still be considerable variability in rainfall for the region. There are signs of El Niño developing in the second half of the year.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: DSWD, PHIVOLCS;
Various news agencies.
