REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the seventh week of 2023, a total of 34 disasters (earthquake, floods, landslide, and wind-related) affected the region. Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand have reportedly been affected. Indonesia’s Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported flooding, landslide, and wind-related disaster events caused by moderate to heavy rainfall, overflowing of rivers, and strong winds in Aceh, Gorontalo, Central Java, East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, West Sumatra, and South Sulawesi. The Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported storm and wind-related disaster events in Uttaradit, Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, Kalasin, Amnat Charoen, Sisaket, Yasothon, Surin, Maha Sarakham, and Ubon Ratchathani. The Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) has also reported flooding and landslide caused by the local pressure area and prolonged moderat to heavy rainfall in Region VI, X, XI, XII and CARAGA, and M6.0 Earthquake in Region V.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to NDRRMC, floodings and landslides have affected 4 provinces in CARAGA on 18 Feb. As of 19 Feb, at 1700 HRS UTC+7, NDRRMC reported that the disasters have resulted in 13.1K families (48.6K persons) affected and 30.1K persons displaced to 162 evacuation centres. Meanwhile, in Thailand, storm and winds has affected 10 provinces on 14 Feb. According to DDPM, as of 17 Feb, at 0600 HRS UTC+7, a total of 340 houses reportedly damaged. Local disaster management authorities have carried out necessary actions to address the situation.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed medium to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Java, Sumatra, Kalimantan, Maluku, and Papua in Indonesia; and most of the Philippines. As of reporting, Tropical Disturbance INVEST 99W is located approximately at 220 km east northeast of Casiguran, Aurora, the Philippines (PAGASA). INVEST 99W is less likely to develop into a Tropical Depression (PAGASA). The potential for the development into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium. (JTWC)
GEOPHYSICAL:
Eight (8) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded in the region by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Karangetang (alert level III), Dukono (alert level II), and Kerinci (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 1), and Mayon Volcano (alert level 2) in the Philippines according to the Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are expected over much of western and northeast Maritime Continent. Cooler conditions are expected over most of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, and over parts of the western Maritime Continent. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a moderate increase in chance in Northern Philippines and Sumatra, and small increase in chance in Malay Peninsula and East Kalimantan for a heavy rainfall event; and small increase in chance for extreme hot conditions to occurs in the parts of central and northern Myanmar. La Niña conditions have been present, with signs of weakening. At the seasonal timescale, La Niña events tend to bring wetter conditions to much of the Maritime Continent.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Various news agencies.
